Titre:
Economic Costs to Lebanon from Climate Change: A First Look
Code:
ENV/16/11
Sous la direction de:
Ministry of Environment - UNDP - gef
Auteur:
Ministry of Environment
Nombre de pages:
110
Contenu:
According to this report, economic damage from climate change on Lebanon could reach more than 80 billion USD in 2040, if the world does not implement quick and serious measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The Lebanese government will bear around 26 billion USD from this economic damage in 2040, according to the assumptions adopted in the study, whereas the Lebanese households will each bear around 60 thousand USD in the same year.
Introduction
2. Conceptual framework
2.1. Overview of the effects of global GHG emissions on climate
2.2. Overview of potential climate change impacts on Lebanon
2.3. Analytical assumptions and approach
3. The overall economic costs that future global GHG emissions might impose
on Lebanon
3.1. Potential costs from cumulative global GHG emissions
3.2. Potential costs from annual global GHG emissions
3.3. Potential savings if global GHG emissions slow to the IPCC’s lowest-
emissions scenario
3.4. Potential costs borne by rural and urban households with different levels of
income
4. Costs that climate change might impose on segments of Lebanon’s economy
and society
4.1. Costs from impacts of climate change on agriculture and food consumption
4.1.1.
Reductions in Lebanon’s overall agricultural production
4.1.2.
Reductions in production of wheat and maize
4.1.3.
Reductions in fish harvest
4.1.4.
Increases in the prices Lebanon’s consumers pay for food because of
climate-related increases in global food prices
4.2. Costs from impacts of climate on water
4.2.1.
Reductions in agricultural and domestic/industrial water supply
4.2.2.
Reductions in water supply for generation of hydroelectricity
4.3. Costs from climate-related natural disasters
4.4. Costs from impacts of climate change on tourism
4.5. Costs from impacts of climate change on electricity consumption
4.6. Costs from impacts of climate change on the health of Lebanon’s citizens
4.6.1.
Risk of death
4.6.2.
Risk of illness and disability
4.7. Costs from impacts of climate change on ecosystems
4.8. Costs from impacts of climate change on society
4.8.1.
Costs from the effects of climate change on violence
4
.8.2. Costs from the effects of climate-related heat stress on the
productivity and earnings of Lebanon’s workers
Table of contents
.8.3. Costs from the effects of climate-related undernourishment of
children on their productivity and earnings as adults
4.8.4.
Costs from climate-related internal migration
5. Potential approaches for reducing the costs of climate change
6. References
Annex I: Participants in stakeholders’ planning session
Annex II: Population, households, and temperature estimates
Annex III: Economic costs that activities contributing to climate would impose on Lebanon
Annex IV: Frequently asked questions
Table 1: Potential costs for Lebanon from the cumulative effects of global GHG emissions,
2015–2020, –2040, and –2080 (2015 USD)
Table 2: Present value of economic costs that global GHG emissions in 2020, 2040, and
2080 would impose on Lebanon under the highest-emissions scenario, RCP8.5 (2015 USD)
Table 3: Present value of economic costs that global GHG emissions in 2020, 2040,
and 2080 would impose on Lebanon under the lowest-emissions scenario, RCP2.6, and potential savings relative to the highest-emissions scenario, RCP8.5 (2015 USD)
Table 4: Percentage reductions, relative to 2010, in average Lebanese household income
for urban, rural farm, and rural nonfarm households, by income quintile, 2020, 2040, and 2080
Table 5: Priorities for cost analysis recommended by stakeholder groups
Table 6: Potential economic costs per year from climate-related reduction in Lebanon’s
agricultural output (2015 USD)
Table 7: Reduction in value of Lebanon’s production of wheat and maize, 2020, 2040, and
2080 (2015 USD)
Table 8: Potential costs from climate-related reductions in Lebanon’s fish harvest (2015
USD)
Table 9: Potential costs to Lebanon’s consumers from climate-related increases in global
food prices (2015 USD and 2015 LBP)
Table 10: Climate-related reductions in water supply and costs to replace the lost water in
Lebanon (2015 USD)
Table 11: Climate-related reduction in hydroelectricity generation and replacement cost in
Lebanon (2015 USD)
Table 12: Potential costs to Lebanon from climate-related natural disasters (2015 USD)
Table 13: Potential reduction in GDP that would occur as changes in climate reduce the
attractiveness to tourists of Lebanon’s coastal resources (2015 USD)
Table 14: Cost of electricity to meet climate-related increase in demand for cooling (2015
USD)
Table 15: Potential economic costs of climate-related risk of death in Lebanon (deaths per
year and 2015 USD)
Table 16: Potential costs of climate-related risk of illness or disability in Lebanon (2015
USD)
Table 17: Potential economic costs from the effects of global GHG emissions on Lebanon’s
ecosystems (2015 USD)
Table 18: Potential costs associated with violence resulting from climate-related increases
in temperature (2015 USD)
Table 19: Potential economic costs to Lebanon from reductions in workers’ productivity
and earnings associated with climate-related heat stress (2015 USD)
List of tables
Table 20: Reduction in productivity and earnings of workers who experienced climate-
related undernourishment as children in Lebanon (2015 USD)
Table 21: Potential number of internal migrants and their loss of income from climate-
related impacts on Lebanon’s food production (2015 USD)
Table 22: Adaptive approaches for reducing the costs climate change will impose on
Lebanon
Table 23: Potential deaths and costs in Lebanon associated with workers’ increased risk of
death from exposure to hazardous substances associated with activities that contribute to climate change (2015 USD)
Table 24: Potential economic costs from the public’s exposure to hazardous substances
in Lebanon (2015 USD)
Table 25: Potential economic costs from the increased risk of oil spills in Lebanon (2015
USD)
Année:
2016
Sous-catégorie:
N/A