العنوان:
التكاليف الاقتصادية للبنان من تغير المناخ: نظرة أولى
الرمز:
ENV/16/11
الجهة المشرفة:
وزارة البيئة - برنامج الأمم المتحدة الإنمائي - مرفق البيئة العالمية
الجهة المعدة:
وزارة البيئة
عدد الصفحات:
110
تطلب من:
مكتب وزير الدولة لشؤون التنمية الادارية
المحتوى:
According to this report, economic damage from climate change on Lebanon could reach more than 80 billion USD in 2040, if the world does not implement quick and serious measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The Lebanese government will bear around 26 billion USD from this economic damage in 2040, according to the assumptions adopted in the study, whereas the Lebanese households will each bear around 60 thousand USD in the same year. Introduction 2. Conceptual framework 2.1. Overview of the effects of global GHG emissions on climate 2.2. Overview of potential climate change impacts on Lebanon 2.3. Analytical assumptions and approach 3. The overall economic costs that future global GHG emissions might impose on Lebanon 3.1. Potential costs from cumulative global GHG emissions 3.2. Potential costs from annual global GHG emissions 3.3. Potential savings if global GHG emissions slow to the IPCC’s lowest- emissions scenario 3.4. Potential costs borne by rural and urban households with different levels of income 4. Costs that climate change might impose on segments of Lebanon’s economy and society 4.1. Costs from impacts of climate change on agriculture and food consumption 4.1.1. Reductions in Lebanon’s overall agricultural production 4.1.2. Reductions in production of wheat and maize 4.1.3. Reductions in fish harvest 4.1.4. Increases in the prices Lebanon’s consumers pay for food because of climate-related increases in global food prices 4.2. Costs from impacts of climate on water 4.2.1. Reductions in agricultural and domestic/industrial water supply 4.2.2. Reductions in water supply for generation of hydroelectricity 4.3. Costs from climate-related natural disasters 4.4. Costs from impacts of climate change on tourism 4.5. Costs from impacts of climate change on electricity consumption 4.6. Costs from impacts of climate change on the health of Lebanon’s citizens 4.6.1. Risk of death 4.6.2. Risk of illness and disability 4.7. Costs from impacts of climate change on ecosystems 4.8. Costs from impacts of climate change on society 4.8.1. Costs from the effects of climate change on violence 4 .8.2. Costs from the effects of climate-related heat stress on the productivity and earnings of Lebanon’s workers Table of contents .8.3. Costs from the effects of climate-related undernourishment of children on their productivity and earnings as adults 4.8.4. Costs from climate-related internal migration 5. Potential approaches for reducing the costs of climate change 6. References Annex I: Participants in stakeholders’ planning session Annex II: Population, households, and temperature estimates Annex III: Economic costs that activities contributing to climate would impose on Lebanon Annex IV: Frequently asked questions Table 1: Potential costs for Lebanon from the cumulative effects of global GHG emissions, 2015–2020, –2040, and –2080 (2015 USD) Table 2: Present value of economic costs that global GHG emissions in 2020, 2040, and 2080 would impose on Lebanon under the highest-emissions scenario, RCP8.5 (2015 USD) Table 3: Present value of economic costs that global GHG emissions in 2020, 2040, and 2080 would impose on Lebanon under the lowest-emissions scenario, RCP2.6, and potential savings relative to the highest-emissions scenario, RCP8.5 (2015 USD) Table 4: Percentage reductions, relative to 2010, in average Lebanese household income for urban, rural farm, and rural nonfarm households, by income quintile, 2020, 2040, and 2080 Table 5: Priorities for cost analysis recommended by stakeholder groups Table 6: Potential economic costs per year from climate-related reduction in Lebanon’s agricultural output (2015 USD) Table 7: Reduction in value of Lebanon’s production of wheat and maize, 2020, 2040, and 2080 (2015 USD) Table 8: Potential costs from climate-related reductions in Lebanon’s fish harvest (2015 USD) Table 9: Potential costs to Lebanon’s consumers from climate-related increases in global food prices (2015 USD and 2015 LBP) Table 10: Climate-related reductions in water supply and costs to replace the lost water in Lebanon (2015 USD) Table 11: Climate-related reduction in hydroelectricity generation and replacement cost in Lebanon (2015 USD) Table 12: Potential costs to Lebanon from climate-related natural disasters (2015 USD) Table 13: Potential reduction in GDP that would occur as changes in climate reduce the attractiveness to tourists of Lebanon’s coastal resources (2015 USD) Table 14: Cost of electricity to meet climate-related increase in demand for cooling (2015 USD) Table 15: Potential economic costs of climate-related risk of death in Lebanon (deaths per year and 2015 USD) Table 16: Potential costs of climate-related risk of illness or disability in Lebanon (2015 USD) Table 17: Potential economic costs from the effects of global GHG emissions on Lebanon’s ecosystems (2015 USD) Table 18: Potential costs associated with violence resulting from climate-related increases in temperature (2015 USD) Table 19: Potential economic costs to Lebanon from reductions in workers’ productivity and earnings associated with climate-related heat stress (2015 USD) List of tables Table 20: Reduction in productivity and earnings of workers who experienced climate- related undernourishment as children in Lebanon (2015 USD) Table 21: Potential number of internal migrants and their loss of income from climate- related impacts on Lebanon’s food production (2015 USD) Table 22: Adaptive approaches for reducing the costs climate change will impose on Lebanon Table 23: Potential deaths and costs in Lebanon associated with workers’ increased risk of death from exposure to hazardous substances associated with activities that contribute to climate change (2015 USD) Table 24: Potential economic costs from the public’s exposure to hazardous substances in Lebanon (2015 USD) Table 25: Potential economic costs from the increased risk of oil spills in Lebanon (2015 USD)
السنة:
2016
القطاع الفرعي:
N/A